We are wrestling
with a number of methodological issues anytime we try to assess Internet usage,
just as it is with any statistical exercise. The leading metrics companies offer,
we hope, a certain degree of reliability, but it's based on a rather narrow methodology
which obscures much of the depth and texture of what sites people are using, and
why. When we are presented with an assertion like "MSN is the most-used 'web property'
in the world," we would do well to ask questions like "Is it really?" and "So
What?" at the very least. The "so what?" question is probably the most pertinent.
Learning that Vivendi Universal is one of the top global web "properties" tells
us little about which major web sites Vivendi Universal actually owns. And the
same goes for most of the others, from AOL to Infospace.
So let's get back
to this "AOL is conquering the world" assumption which is easy enough to make
if you look at the Jupiter Media Metrix or Netratings reports for the U.S.
Poring over various statistics from a global perspective leaves one with a very
different impression. I'm from Canada, so it's been hard not to notice both Media
Metrix (http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/010528/
cdn_website_survey.html)
and Netratings
(http://reports.netratings.com/ca/web/
NRpublicreports.toppropertiesweekly)
releasing reports pointing to considerable strength in MSN and Yahoo, and marked
weakness in AOL.
From a global standpoint, recent reports by Jupiter Media Metrix (http://www.jmm.com/press/ globalTop50WebProperties.html) and Netratings (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010523/2575.html) also expose the fact that MSN and Yahoo are quite strong globally (MSN seems to be #1 at the moment), and the fact that AOL, while strong, is by no means dominant. In some countries, AOL looks downright feeble. In France, Netratings puts AOL Time Warner in the #7 spot; Wanadoo, Lycos, and Yahoo are the top three.
Ireland is another interesting one. In spite of the media hype about the British AOL icon "Connie," AOL Time Warner places 7th in Ireland. Yahoo, MSN, and Eircom take the top three spots.
The strength of
Vivendi Universal seems to be a new wildcard in the global picture. A large conglomerate
such as this can afford to make strategic acquisitions to add on to its ventures
in areas such as online gaming. If Terra Lycos is one potential suitor for certain
unloved dot coms, then Vivendi Universal must be seen to be an even bigger force
in this regard. The presence of hungry suitors might yet grease the wheels for
needed reorganizations and consolidations in the industry. If companies like Infospace
or Excite@Home might be seeking to unload certain parts of their bifurcated businesses
to better focus on their core businesses, the continued lurking presence of global
media conglomerates might just ensure that something is salvaged from the wreckage.
And it must be said again: these numbers show Yahoo is much stronger globally
than we've allowed ourselves to believe in recent months. Whichever large media
conglomerate chooses to merge and converge with Yahoo will be a formidable opponent
for the AOL Time Warner juggernaut. The only thing that nags at the back of one's
mind is the question of why so many global Yahoo execs decided to leave "for personal
reasons." Could it be that they listened to the media doom and gloom, and misread
the future? Or was the pay just not good enough? It's true that the pay is probably
better at a Big Media Company. Which Yahoo will soon be, one way or another.
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