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It's interesting to see what you get when you really take stock of the Internet usage metrics.

The mass media tend to spin it as an AOL-dominated playing field. Last week's Washington Post article, for example, offered an interesting but AOL-centric view of the European Internet marketplace. To AOL execs (and necessarily so, since driving additional growth is their job), Europe is a virgin land waiting to be conquered. It would be a nice bit of historical irony if it panned out, but actual Europeans might have some say in the matter.

The state of the online stats reporting business is surprisingly healthy. Although some of them have been involved in mergers or been acquired for relatively small change, there are four solid survivors today from whom we can draw inferences about web usage in different nations, and about the strength of the leading online services:

  • Jupiter Media Metrix (http://www.jmm.com) is a recently-merged entity combining a leading online strategy and market research consultancy, Jupiter Communications, and Media Metrix, an Internet statistics measurement firm which tracks Internet usage by following the surfing habits of tens of thousands of users at home and at work. This firm is considered by many to be the definitive online stats measurement service. However, given the stiff competition in this space, JMM faces challenges. For one thing, the management structure seems top-heavy with Vice-Presidents, and every analyst is a "senior" analyst. I am hoping this gives me license to call myself an "uber-analyst."
  • Nielsen Netratings (http://www.nielsen-netratings.com ), a division of the ACNielsen company which is famous for measuring TV ratings. Netratings impressed me recently with the release of a comprehensive report on global Internet usage. Its coverage of the globe is more extensive than any other firm's; in particular, it seems to have a good handle on the leading European web properties. Publicly available weekly reports of the top ten web properties in many countries are also a plus. The company boasts that its experience in the field gives it a leg up on competitors. In particular, the chosen sample of users is assembled using the random digit dialing methods common to the science of public opinion polling. Competitors, Netratings claims, don't always use a properly representative sample of Internet users. They also make the good point that they may be in a better position than other firms are to handle the coming convergence amongst online and broadcast media.
  • PC Data Online (http://www.netscoreonline.com) is now part of a companycalled comScore. Their online metrics research product, now callednetScore, has gained some attention through a joint venture with
    Doubleclick. comScore uses a panel of 1.5 million Internet users (who are
    incented to participate with free fast net access and other perks) to amass its data. Certainly worth a close look.
  • WebSideStory (http://www.websidestory.com) is getting a lot of ink basically because it is pretty good at issuing press releases into a news vacuum. These press releases tend to say things like "MSN is a global leader." WSS's stats are based on analysis of server logs from users of their HitBox stats measurement package. This is not necessarily a very reliable method, but it can give us some valuable insights into which search engines refer the most traffic. WebSideStory contends that the leading search referrer is Yahoo (by a mile), followed by MSN, Google, and AOL. This seems fair enough.

We are wrestling with a number of methodological issues anytime we try to assess Internet usage, just as it is with any statistical exercise. The leading metrics companies offer, we hope, a certain degree of reliability, but it's based on a rather narrow methodology which obscures much of the depth and texture of what sites people are using, and why. When we are presented with an assertion like "MSN is the most-used 'web property' in the world," we would do well to ask questions like "Is it really?" and "So What?" at the very least. The "so what?" question is probably the most pertinent. Learning that Vivendi Universal is one of the top global web "properties" tells us little about which major web sites Vivendi Universal actually owns. And the same goes for most of the others, from AOL to Infospace.

So let's get back to this "AOL is conquering the world" assumption which is easy enough to make if you look at the Jupiter Media Metrix or Netratings reports for the U.S.

Poring over various statistics from a global perspective leaves one with a very different impression. I'm from Canada, so it's been hard not to notice both Media Metrix (http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/010528/ cdn_website_survey.html) and Netratings
(http://reports.netratings.com/ca/web/ NRpublicreports.toppropertiesweekly) releasing reports pointing to considerable strength in MSN and Yahoo, and marked weakness in AOL.

From a global standpoint, recent reports by Jupiter Media Metrix (http://www.jmm.com/press/ globalTop50WebProperties.html) and Netratings (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010523/2575.html) also expose the fact that MSN and Yahoo are quite strong globally (MSN seems to be #1 at the moment), and the fact that AOL, while strong, is by no means dominant. In some countries, AOL looks downright feeble. In France, Netratings puts AOL Time Warner in the #7 spot; Wanadoo, Lycos, and Yahoo are the top three.

Ireland is another interesting one. In spite of the media hype about the British AOL icon "Connie," AOL Time Warner places 7th in Ireland. Yahoo, MSN, and Eircom take the top three spots.

The strength of Vivendi Universal seems to be a new wildcard in the global picture. A large conglomerate such as this can afford to make strategic acquisitions to add on to its ventures in areas such as online gaming. If Terra Lycos is one potential suitor for certain unloved dot coms, then Vivendi Universal must be seen to be an even bigger force in this regard. The presence of hungry suitors might yet grease the wheels for needed reorganizations and consolidations in the industry. If companies like Infospace or Excite@Home might be seeking to unload certain parts of their bifurcated businesses to better focus on their core businesses, the continued lurking presence of global media conglomerates might just ensure that something is salvaged from the wreckage.

And it must be said again: these numbers show Yahoo is much stronger globally than we've allowed ourselves to believe in recent months. Whichever large media conglomerate chooses to merge and converge with Yahoo will be a formidable opponent for the AOL Time Warner juggernaut. The only thing that nags at the back of one's mind is the question of why so many global Yahoo execs decided to leave "for personal reasons." Could it be that they listened to the media doom and gloom, and misread the future? Or was the pay just not good enough? It's true that the pay is probably better at a Big Media Company. Which Yahoo will soon be, one way or another.


Andrew Goodman is co-founder and Editor of Traffick.com, a popular guide to search engine and portal trends. He has published articles in publications such as Internet Markets, The Globe and Mail, and Yorkshire Post Magazine, and is regularly cited in business and technology publications such as Business Week. In 1999, Andrew left his burgeoning academic career in political theory and policy studies to found a private consultancy, Page Zero Media, which offers search engine marketing services and strategic advice to companies seeking an online presence.

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Andrew Goodman is co-founder and Editor of Traffick.com, a popular guide to search engine and portal trends. He has published articles in publications such as Internet Markets, The Globe and Mail, and Yorkshire Post Magazine, and is regularly cited in business and technology publications such as Business Week. In 1999, Andrew left his burgeoning academic career in political theory and policy studies to found a private consultancy, Page Zero Media, which offers search engine marketing services and strategic advice to companies seeking an online presence.